Analysts are warning that Turkey’s decision to provide military support to the Tripoli-based GNA “could predicate its demise”, since the GNA “has hardly any ally, except a few on paper”.
According to Huseyin Bagci of Ankara's Middle East Technical University, "At the moment, the situation seems to be working on the side of Haftar. He has better weapons. He has jet fighters. He has superiority on the air and in the field,"… "I am not sure what kind of soldiers Turkey will send there."
Bagci added, "Erdogan has played the card. He will not allow the Tripoli government to fall. He will defend to the last man, because Erdogan has played a big card, a big gamble. But the arrival of Turkish troops may yet change the psychology, the balance of forces in Libya."
Former Turkish ambassador Mithat Rende suggests Ankara may be banking that its Libya move forces regional rivals to the negotiating table.
Aktar disagrees. "We haven't seen any diplomatic action in months, if not years, on seeking negotiation," he said. "The only action we've seen (is) aggressive deals and moves by Ankara. So, the final aims can be diplomacy and negotiation, but we've seen no concrete moves in this direction."
"Turkey has no capability for these out-of-area operations," Aktar said. "It will be extremely dangerous, costly, and deadly to go ahead with this military cooperation if more military forces are needed to sustain this deal with Tripoli."